"A recession is an episodic event that is hard to predict," he said, pointing out that one indicator-the bond market-has been "all over the lot." Timmer agreed, adding, "The yield curve has a perfect track record of predicting recessions, but the timing and magnitude of the outcome are notoriously disperse.
MACRO MANAGEMENT GAME FREE
Will there be a recession? Bianco said that the natural state of free market economies, 80 to 90 percent of the time, is to expand. "We may be digesting what happened before we start to move forward." "Slowing down the world economy had serious consequences," he said. We could be in a similar era of uncertainty in the post-pandemic era, he said.
The panelists looked back to the Dutch tulip bubble of the 1600s and the British bicycle craze of 1896, but also much more recent experiences-such as the 1960s mania for electronics stock and the crypto bubble of 2021-to learn from history.īianco pointed to the long-lasting post-World War II boom, which didn't really start until 1951, following an inflationary period. If you are using the Tequila launcher, it is probably in GAME ROOTdata. And can it reach that low point without a recession?" Gunners Macro Management system, or GMM, is a way to get a handle on command. Remember that a macro manager is still leading the team. Host frequent retrospectives where teams come together to analyze their wins and failures. Make sure everybody has a holistic view of what the entire team is up to. But the market is extrapolating from the past.Īccording to James Bianco, president of Bianco Research, "It's a difficult call to say that if inflation goes down to two percent, it will also stay there and not start drifting up. Use a work management platform (cough, Trello is great for this) so that projects and communication are centralized. Panelist Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity Investments, said that the bond market is signaling that the current high inflation will eventually revert to 2.5 percent, assuming that the disinflationary regime of the past few decades will continue. Wood, managing director at the CMT Association. NEW YORK, Ap/PRNewswire/ - The "Macro Outlook and Investment Strategies for 2023 and Beyond" panel on the second day of Quinnipiac University's 12th Global Asset Management Education (GAME) Forum said we should learn from history about the market's behavior in unsettled times-but the lessons are useful only to a point.
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